# MultiLR: Prediction + inferential models

STA 210 - Spring 2022

# Welcome

## Topics

• Predictions
• Model selection
• Checking conditions

## Computational setup

# load packages
library(tidyverse)
library(tidymodels)
library(NHANES)
library(knitr)
library(patchwork)
library(colorblindr)
library(pROC)
library(Stat2Data)
library(nnet)

# set default theme and larger font size for ggplot2
ggplot2::theme_set(ggplot2::theme_minimal(base_size = 20))

## NHANES Data

• National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey is conducted by the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS).
• The goal is to “assess the health and nutritional status of adults and children in the United States”.
• This survey includes an interview and a physical examination.

## Variables

Goal: Use a person’s age and whether they do regular physical activity to predict their self-reported health rating.

• Outcome: HealthGen: Self-reported rating of participant’s health in general. Excellent, Vgood, Good, Fair, or Poor.

• Predictors:

• Age: Age at time of screening (in years). Participants 80 or older were recorded as 80.
• PhysActive: Participant does moderate to vigorous-intensity sports, fitness or recreational activities.

## The data

nhanes_adult <- NHANES %>%
filter(Age >= 18) %>%
select(HealthGen, Age, PhysActive, Education) %>%
drop_na() %>%
mutate(obs_num = 1:n())
glimpse(nhanes_adult)
Rows: 6,465
Columns: 5
$HealthGen <fct> Good, Good, Good, Good, Vgood, Vgood, Vgood, Vgood, Vgood, …$ Age        <int> 34, 34, 34, 49, 45, 45, 45, 66, 58, 54, 50, 33, 60, 56, 56,…
$PhysActive <fct> No, No, No, No, Yes, Yes, Yes, Yes, Yes, Yes, Yes, No, No, …$ Education  <fct> High School, High School, High School, Some College, Colleg…
obs_num <int> 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, … ## Model in R health_fit <- multinom_reg() %>% set_engine("nnet") %>% fit(HealthGen ~ Age + PhysActive, data = nhanes_adult) health_fit <- repair_call(health_fit, data = nhanes_adult) ## Model summary tidy(health_fit) %>% print(n = 12) # A tibble: 12 × 6 y.level term estimate std.error statistic p.value <chr> <chr> <dbl> <dbl> <dbl> <dbl> 1 Vgood (Intercept) 1.27 0.154 8.23 1.80e-16 2 Vgood Age -0.0000361 0.00259 -0.0139 9.89e- 1 3 Vgood PhysActiveYes -0.332 0.0949 -3.50 4.72e- 4 4 Good (Intercept) 1.99 0.150 13.3 2.81e-40 5 Good Age -0.00304 0.00256 -1.19 2.35e- 1 6 Good PhysActiveYes -1.01 0.0921 -11.0 4.80e-28 7 Fair (Intercept) 1.03 0.174 5.94 2.89e- 9 8 Fair Age 0.00113 0.00302 0.373 7.09e- 1 9 Fair PhysActiveYes -1.66 0.109 -15.2 4.14e-52 10 Poor (Intercept) -1.34 0.299 -4.47 7.65e- 6 11 Poor Age 0.0193 0.00505 3.83 1.30e- 4 12 Poor PhysActiveYes -2.67 0.236 -11.3 1.20e-29 # Predictions ## Calculating probabilities • For categories $2,\ldots,K$, the probability that the $i^{th}$ observation is in the $j^{th}$ category is $\hat{\pi}_{ij} = \frac{e^{\hat{\beta}_{0j} + \hat{\beta}_{1j}x_{i1} + \dots + \hat{\beta}_{pj}x_{ip}}}{1 + \sum\limits_{k=2}^K e^{\hat{\beta}_{0k} + \hat{\beta}_{1k}x_{i1} + \dots \hat{\beta}_{pk}x_{ip}}}$ • For the baseline category, $k=1$, we calculate the probability $\hat{\pi}_{i1}$ as $\hat{\pi}_{i1} = 1- \sum\limits_{k=2}^K \hat{\pi}_{ik}$ ## Predicted health rating We can use our model to predict a person’s perceived health rating given their age and whether they exercise. health_aug <- augment(health_fit, new_data = nhanes_adult) health_aug # A tibble: 6,465 × 11 HealthGen Age PhysActive Education obs_num .pred_class .pred_Excellent <fct> <int> <fct> <fct> <int> <fct> <dbl> 1 Good 34 No High School 1 Good 0.0687 2 Good 34 No High School 2 Good 0.0687 3 Good 34 No High School 3 Good 0.0687 4 Good 49 No Some College 4 Good 0.0691 5 Vgood 45 Yes College Grad 5 Vgood 0.155 6 Vgood 45 Yes College Grad 6 Vgood 0.155 7 Vgood 45 Yes College Grad 7 Vgood 0.155 8 Vgood 66 Yes Some College 8 Vgood 0.157 9 Vgood 58 Yes College Grad 9 Vgood 0.156 10 Fair 54 Yes 9 - 11th Grade 10 Vgood 0.156 # … with 6,455 more rows, and 4 more variables: .pred_Vgood <dbl>, # .pred_Good <dbl>, .pred_Fair <dbl>, .pred_Poor <dbl> ## Actual vs. predicted health rating For each observation, the predicted perceived health rating is the category with the highest predicted probability. health_aug %>% select(contains("pred")) # A tibble: 6,465 × 6 .pred_class .pred_Excellent .pred_Vgood .pred_Good .pred_Fair .pred_Poor <fct> <dbl> <dbl> <dbl> <dbl> <dbl> 1 Good 0.0687 0.243 0.453 0.201 0.0348 2 Good 0.0687 0.243 0.453 0.201 0.0348 3 Good 0.0687 0.243 0.453 0.201 0.0348 4 Good 0.0691 0.244 0.435 0.205 0.0467 5 Vgood 0.155 0.393 0.359 0.0868 0.00671 6 Vgood 0.155 0.393 0.359 0.0868 0.00671 7 Vgood 0.155 0.393 0.359 0.0868 0.00671 8 Vgood 0.157 0.400 0.342 0.0904 0.0102 9 Vgood 0.156 0.397 0.349 0.0890 0.00872 10 Vgood 0.156 0.396 0.352 0.0883 0.00804 # … with 6,455 more rows ## Confusion matrix health_conf <- health_aug %>% count(HealthGen, .pred_class, .drop = FALSE) %>% pivot_wider(names_from = .pred_class, values_from = n) health_conf # A tibble: 5 × 6 HealthGen Excellent Vgood Good Fair Poor <fct> <int> <int> <int> <int> <int> 1 Excellent 0 528 210 0 0 2 Vgood 0 1341 743 0 0 3 Good 0 1226 1316 0 0 4 Fair 0 296 625 0 0 5 Poor 0 24 156 0 0 ## Actual vs. predicted health rating Why do you think no observations were predicted to have a rating of “Excellent”, “Fair”, or “Poor”? # Model selection for inference ## Comparing nested models • Suppose there are two models: • Reduced model includes predictors $x_1, \ldots, x_q$ • Full model includes predictors $x_1, \ldots, x_q, x_{q+1}, \ldots, x_p$ • We want to test the following hypotheses: • $H_0: \beta_{q+1} = \dots = \beta_p = 0$ • $H_A: \text{ at least 1 }\beta_j \text{ is not } 0$ • To do so, we will use the drop-in-deviance test (very similar to logistic regression) ## Add Education to the model? • We consider adding the participants’ Education level to the model. • Education takes values 8thGrade, 9-11thGrade, HighSchool, SomeCollege, and CollegeGrad • Models we’re testing: • Reduced model: Age, PhysActive • Full model: Age, PhysActive, Education \begin{align} &H_0: \beta_{9-11thGrade} = \beta_{HighSchool} = \beta_{SomeCollege} = \beta_{CollegeGrad} = 0\\ &H_a: \text{ at least one }\beta_j \text{ is not equal to }0 \end{align} ## Add Education to the model? reduced_fit <- multinom_reg() %>% set_engine("nnet") %>% fit(HealthGen ~ Age + PhysActive, data = nhanes_adult) full_fit <- multinom_reg() %>% set_engine("nnet") %>% fit(HealthGen ~ Age + PhysActive + Education, data = nhanes_adult) reduced_fit <- repair_call(reduced_fit, data = nhanes_adult) full_fit <- repair_call(full_fit, data = nhanes_adult) ## Add Education to the model? anova(reduced_fitfit, full_fit$fit, test = "Chisq") %>% kable(digits = 3) Model Resid. df Resid. Dev Test Df LR stat. Pr(Chi) Age + PhysActive 25848 16994.23 NA NA NA Age + PhysActive + Education 25832 16505.10 1 vs 2 16 489.132 0 At least one coefficient associated with Education is non-zero. Therefore, we will include Education in the model. ## Model with Education tidy(full_fit, conf.int = T) %>% print(n = 28) # A tibble: 28 × 8 y.level term estimate std.error statistic p.value conf.low conf.high <chr> <chr> <dbl> <dbl> <dbl> <dbl> <dbl> <dbl> 1 Vgood (Intercept) 5.82e-1 0.301 1.93 5.36e- 2 -0.00914 1.17 2 Vgood Age 1.12e-3 0.00266 0.419 6.75e- 1 -0.00411 0.00634 3 Vgood PhysActiveY… -2.64e-1 0.0985 -2.68 7.33e- 3 -0.457 -0.0711 4 Vgood Education9 … 7.68e-1 0.308 2.49 1.27e- 2 0.164 1.37 5 Vgood EducationHi… 7.01e-1 0.280 2.51 1.21e- 2 0.153 1.25 6 Vgood EducationSo… 7.88e-1 0.271 2.90 3.71e- 3 0.256 1.32 7 Vgood EducationCo… 4.08e-1 0.268 1.52 1.28e- 1 -0.117 0.933 8 Good (Intercept) 2.04e+0 0.272 7.51 5.77e-14 1.51 2.57 9 Good Age -1.72e-3 0.00263 -0.651 5.15e- 1 -0.00688 0.00345 10 Good PhysActiveY… -7.58e-1 0.0961 -7.88 3.16e-15 -0.946 -0.569 11 Good Education9 … 3.60e-1 0.275 1.31 1.90e- 1 -0.179 0.899 12 Good EducationHi… 8.52e-2 0.247 0.345 7.30e- 1 -0.399 0.569 13 Good EducationSo… -1.13e-2 0.239 -0.0472 9.62e- 1 -0.480 0.457 14 Good EducationCo… -8.91e-1 0.236 -3.77 1.65e- 4 -1.35 -0.427 15 Fair (Intercept) 2.12e+0 0.288 7.35 1.91e-13 1.55 2.68 16 Fair Age 3.35e-4 0.00312 0.107 9.14e- 1 -0.00578 0.00645 17 Fair PhysActiveY… -1.19e+0 0.115 -10.4 3.50e-25 -1.42 -0.966 18 Fair Education9 … -2.24e-1 0.279 -0.802 4.22e- 1 -0.771 0.323 19 Fair EducationHi… -8.32e-1 0.252 -3.31 9.44e- 4 -1.33 -0.339 20 Fair EducationSo… -1.34e+0 0.246 -5.46 4.71e- 8 -1.82 -0.861 21 Fair EducationCo… -2.51e+0 0.253 -9.91 3.67e-23 -3.00 -2.01 22 Poor (Intercept) -2.00e-1 0.411 -0.488 6.26e- 1 -1.01 0.605 23 Poor Age 1.79e-2 0.00509 3.53 4.21e- 4 0.00797 0.0279 24 Poor PhysActiveY… -2.27e+0 0.242 -9.38 6.81e-21 -2.74 -1.79 25 Poor Education9 … -3.60e-1 0.353 -1.02 3.08e- 1 -1.05 0.332 26 Poor EducationHi… -1.15e+0 0.334 -3.44 5.86e- 4 -1.81 -0.494 27 Poor EducationSo… -1.07e+0 0.316 -3.40 6.77e- 4 -1.69 -0.454 28 Poor EducationCo… -2.32e+0 0.366 -6.34 2.27e-10 -3.04 -1.60  ## Compare NHANES models using AIC Reduced model: glance(reduced_fit)$AIC
[1] 17018.23

Full model:

glance(full_fit)\$AIC
[1] 16561.1

# Checking conditions for inference

## Conditions for inference

We want to check the following conditions for inference for the multinomial logistic regression model:

1. Linearity: Is there a linear relationship between the log-odds and the predictor variables?

2. Randomness: Was the sample randomly selected? Or can we reasonably treat it as random?

3. Independence: Are the observations independent?

## Checking linearity

Similar to logistic regression, we will check linearity by examining empirical logit plots between each level of the response and the quantitative predictor variables.

nhanes_adult <- nhanes_adult %>%
mutate(
Excellent = factor(if_else(HealthGen == "Excellent", "1", "0")),
Vgood = factor(if_else(HealthGen == "Vgood", "1", "0")),
Good = factor(if_else(HealthGen == "Good", "1", "0")),
Fair = factor(if_else(HealthGen == "Fair", "1", "0")),
Poor = factor(if_else(HealthGen == "Poor", "1", "0"))
)

## Checking linearity

emplogitplot1(Excellent ~ Age, data = nhanes_adult,
ngroups = 10, main = "Excellent vs. Age")
emplogitplot1(Vgood ~ Age, data = nhanes_adult,
ngroups = 10, main = "Vgood vs. Age")

## Checking linearity

emplogitplot1(Good ~ Age, data = nhanes_adult,
ngroups = 10, main = "Good vs. Age")
emplogitplot1(Fair ~ Age, data = nhanes_adult,
ngroups = 10, main = "Fair vs. Age")

## Checking linearity

emplogitplot1(Poor ~ Age, data = nhanes_adult,
ngroups = 10, main = "Poor vs. Age")

✅ The linearity condition is satisfied. There is a linear relationship between the empirical logit and the quantitative predictor variable, Age.

## Checking randomness

We can check the randomness condition based on the context of the data and how the observations were collected.

• Was the sample randomly selected?

• If the sample was not randomly selected, ask whether there is reason to believe the observations in the sample differ systematically from the population of interest.

✅ The randomness condition is satisfied. We do not have reason to believe that the participants in this study differ systematically from adults in the U.S..

## Checking independence

We can check the independence condition based on the context of the data and how the observations were collected.

Independence is most often violated if the data were collected over time or there is a strong spatial relationship between the observations.

✅ The independence condition is satisfied. It is reasonable to conclude that the participants’ health and behavior characteristics are independent of one another.

## Recap

• Predictions
• Model selection for inference
• Checking conditions for inference